Source Themes

How experiments help campaigns persuade voters: evidence from a large archive of campaigns’ own experiments

Political campaigns increasingly conduct experiments to learn how to persuade voters. Little research has considered the implications of this trend for elections or democracy. To probe these implications, we analyze a unique archive of 146 …

Using in-survey randomized controlled trials to support future pandemic response

According to various sources the world is likely to witness another pandemic on the scale of COVID-19 in the future. How can the social and behavioral sciences contribute to a successful response? Here we conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of an …

Comparing the persuasiveness of role-playing large language models and human experts on polarized U.S. political issues

Advances in large language models (LLMs) could significantly disrupt political communication. In a large-scale pre-registered experiment (n = 4,955), we prompted GPT-4 to generate persuasive messages impersonating the language and beliefs of U.S. …

No association between numerical ability and politically motivated reasoning in a large US probability sample

The highly influential theory of “Motivated System 2 Reasoning” argues that analytical, deliberative (“System 2”) reasoning is hijacked by identity when considering ideologically charged issues—leading people who are more likely to engage in such …

Quantifying the potential persuasive returns to political microtargeting

Much concern has been raised about the power of political microtargeting to sway voters’ opinions, influence elections, and undermine democracy. Yet little research has directly estimated the persuasive advantage of microtargeting over alternative …

Partisans’ receptivity to persuasive messaging is undiminished by countervailing party leader cues

It is widely assumed that party identification and loyalty can distort partisans’ information processing, diminishing their receptivity to counter-partisan arguments and evidence. Here we empirically evaluate this assumption. We test whether American …

Estimating the between-issue variation in party elite cue effects

Party elite cues are among the most well-established influences on citizens’ political opinions. Yet, there is substantial variation in effect sizes across studies, constraining the generalizability and theoretical development of party elite cues …

A many-analysts approach to the relation between religiosity and well-being

The relation between religiosity and well-being is one of the most researched topics in the psychology of religion, yet the directionality and robustness of the effect remains debated. Here, we adopted a many-analysts approach to assess the …

Rank-heterogeneous effects of political messages: Evidence from randomized survey experiments testing 59 video treatments

Central to theories of political persuasion is treatment effect heterogeneity—the idea that people respond to political messages in different ways—so persuasion is easier when different messages are targeted to different audiences. The standard …

The (minimal) persuasive advantage of political video over text

Concerns about video-based political persuasion are prevalent in both popular and academic circles, predicated on the assumption that video is more compelling than text. To date, however, this assumption remains largely untested in the political …