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Estimating the causal effects of cognitive effort and policy information on party cue influence

Party cues can influence public opinion, but the extent to which they do so varies dramatically from context to context. Why? The long-standing theory that party cues function as “heuristics” provides an answer, predicting that variation in exposure …

For digital mass persuasion, exposure matters more than persuasiveness

An essay in which I argue that content exposure matters more than its persuasiveness for having mass persuasive impact on digital media. Originally posted on Substack.

The levers of political persuasion with conversational AI

There are widespread fears that conversational artificial intelligence (AI) could soon exert unprecedented influence over human beliefs. In this work, in three large-scale experiments (N = 76,977 participants), we deployed 19 large language models …

Mind over bias: How is cognitive control related to politically motivated reasoning?

People often favour information aligned with their ideological motives. Can our tendency for directional motivated reasoning be overcome with cognitive control? It remains contested whether cognitive control processes, such as cognitive reflection …

Comparing the persuasiveness of role-playing large language models and human experts on polarized U.S. political issues

Advances in large language models (LLMs) could significantly disrupt political communication. In a large-scale pre-registered experiment (n = 4,955), we prompted GPT-4 to generate persuasive messages impersonating the language and beliefs of U.S. …

Large language models are more persuasive than incentivized human persuaders

We directly compare the persuasion capabilities of a frontier large language model (LLM; Claude Sonnet 3.5) against incentivized human persuaders in an interactive, real-time conversational quiz setting. In this preregistered, large-scale …

Scaling language model size yields diminishing returns for single-message political persuasion

Large language models can now generate political messages as persuasive as those written by humans, raising concerns about how far this persuasiveness may continue to increase with model size. Here, we generate 720 persuasive messages on 10 US …

Using survey experiment pretesting to support future pandemic response

The world could witness another pandemic on the scale of COVID-19 in the future, prompting calls for research into how social and behavioral science can better contribute to pandemic response, especially regarding public engagement and communication. …

How experiments help campaigns persuade voters: evidence from a large archive of campaigns’ own experiments

Political campaigns increasingly conduct experiments to learn how to persuade voters. Little research has considered the implications of this trend for elections or democracy. To probe these implications, we analyze a unique archive of 146 …

No association between numerical ability and politically motivated reasoning in a large US probability sample

The highly influential theory of “Motivated System 2 Reasoning” argues that analytical, deliberative (“System 2”) reasoning is hijacked by identity when considering ideologically charged issues—leading people who are more likely to engage in such …